Leisure Travel to Reach Record High in 2013, Says US Travel | 9th ...

Domestic leisure travel will increase to a record high next year, while the US travel industry will add nearly 100,000 jobs, according to a new forecast from the US Travel Association.

But while both domestic and inbound travel will continue to grow in 2013, it will be at a slower pace than in the recent past, David Huether, U.S, Travel?s senior vice president of research and economics said at a press conference last week.

?While the growth rate is more moderate than in previous years, leisure travel remains at an all-time high and is an indicator of rising consumer confidence,? Huether said.

Trip numbers up
Leisure travel is expected to rise 1.2 % next year, while business travel will increase nearly 1% and international inbound travel will increase by 4%. Total domestic travel spending, including leisure and business travel, will increase 3%.

Significantly, the total number of trips will be at an all-time high in 2013 ? above the prior peak in 2007, Huether noted.

?Keep in mind that the growth rate of the past several years has been very strong,? he said. And even the 1.1% overall growth we expect next year is faster than the growth from 2003 to 2007, the last period when there was a sustained upturn in trips.?

Inbound travel, spending up
Total international inbound travel will increase by 4% in 2013, while spending will grow 7.1%, according to the forecast. The importance of global travel to the American economy continues to increase, with international travelers now accounting for 15.1% of total travel spending in the US, up from 14.3% in 2011.

?Last year, a third of jobs created were a result of international spending,? Huether said.

The biggest growth in international travel is from Asia and Latin America. Because the visa waiver program was extended to Taiwan as of November 1, there should be at least a short-term bump in travel from that country, Huether said.

Shorter wait time for visas in China and Brazil will also mean a significant increase in travel from those countries. ?Those numbers may not be as large as the numbers from the UK or Germany but the gap is a lot closer than seven years ago,? Huether said.

While the numbers continue to trend upward, any slowdown in inbound travel growth is of concern because overseas travelers contribute significantly more to the US economy, spending an average of $4,300 per trip, Huether said.

Travel outperforming general economy
Although travel is forecasted to grow, Huether also noted that the overall US economy is in ?a sluggish mode.?

?Business investment has slowed considerably after a rapid rise in the first quarter. Export growth, to which travel contributes significantly, has slowed dramatically,? he said. ?Still, exports are up 13% compared to the pre-downturn peak.

?The fact that travel is more leisure oriented has enabled the travel industry to outperform the general economy through this recovery. That?s most evident in the job picture where travel has recovered much more rapidly than the overall economy.?

Economic trends that bode well for travel are rising consumer confidence, cash-rich corporations, recovery of housing, low mortgage rates and lower personal debt, according to Huether.

Unemployment factors
While noting that the main negative for travel remains high unemployment, Huether said the fact that the unemployment rate is only 4.1% among people with four-year college degrees ? a demographic that accounts for half of all domestic travelers ? is a mitigating factor.

The unemployment rate among people with a two-year college degree, who comprise a third of all domestic travelers, is 6.5%, still well below the national average of 7.9%, he said.

Impact of Sandy, fiscal cliff
Asked about the impact of Superstorm Sandy, Huether said it is too early to tell.

?If I had to guess there could be some shifting of activity in the fourth quarter of this year but whether that would have a measurable impact on the national market is not possible to say right now. Perhaps we might take a closer look at this in a week or two.??? ?

Posing a bigger long-term threat to travel is the looming ?fiscal cliff? involving issues facing the federal government such as raising the debt ceiling and lapsing tax cuts, Huether said,

?Some analysts think that if no deal is done we can hit a recession early next year,? he said. ?That is a significant incentive to avert a disaster. The likelihood is that the uncertainty is having an impact on travel planning. We could see some sort of showdown taking place.?

Source: http://www.9tharkansas.org/2012/11/10/leisure-travel-to-reach-record-high-in-2013-says-us-travel/

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