By Ankush Kumar Jain
Yesterday's trading session has seen MCX crude oil breaking the important support level of Rs.4780 a barrel in December contract in addition to another level of Rs.4725 which was 61.8% retracement support.
Now, clearly the bearish trend is confirmed until it trades below 50% retracement level of 4780. Next support for crude oil December contract on MCX is expected at Rs.4650 levels. Intraday traders are advised to short sell crude December futures around Rs.4730 with stop loss of Rs.4780 for the target near Rs.4680.
On the MCX, crude oil for December delivery was seen trading at Rs.4710 a barrel as of 03.51 PM IST, a gain of 0.47% against the previous close.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil for January delivery is being traded on ICE Futures Europe at $106.92 a barrel, a loss of 0.05% against the previous close as of 03.36 PM IST. Its trans-Atlantic counterpart, WTI crude oil for the same month is being traded at $86.17 a barrel, a loss of 0.09% against previous close.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in a speech said that ?the economic weakness in the euro area is expected to extend into next year...annual real GDP growth (is expected) in a range between -0.6% and -0.4% for 2012, between -0.9% and 0.3% for 2013 and between 0.2% and 2.2% for 2014.??Eurozone along with the rest of Europe consumes 16% of crude oil produced in the world.
The markets would closely monitor US non-farm pay roll data that is scheduled to be released today at 07.00 PM IST which is expected to be negative for crude oil. The data is forecast to say US added 89000 jobs in November compared to October figures at 171000.
(Ankush Kumar Jain is Manager-Research, Metals-Energy, Commodity Online)
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